Is College Football in 2024 crazy of what? Last week, I was talking about “Clemsoning” and how far the Clemson Tigers have fallen. A week later, there is a chance that the Tigers can still make the College Football Playoff.
Yes, I know some things still need to happen, starting with a Clemson win this week against Pitt. With Miami’s loss against Georgia Tech, they join Clemson as the only two teams in the ACC with a singular conference loss. SMU sits atop the ACC undefeated in conference play at 5-0. So, what is Clemson’s path to the ACC Championship Game? Let’s take a look at the ACC’s official tiebreaker rules.
A. Two-Team Tie
1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
2. Win-percentage versus all common opponents.
3. Win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference
win-percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon
their order of finish.
4. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents.
5. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource
Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.
6. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or
Commissioner’s designee.
B. Three (or More) Team Tie
Three team (or more) tiebreaker procedure will first be used to identify one Championship Game
representative. Once that team is determined, the tiebreaker procedures restart for the remaining tied
teams.
1. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common
opponents.
2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied
teams.
i. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, no tied team defeated each of the other
tied teams, but a tied team lost to each of the other tied teams, such team shall be
eliminated and removed from the tie.
3. Win-percentage versus all common opponents.
4. Win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference
win-percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon
their order of finish.
5. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents.
6. The tied team with the highest ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource
Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.
7. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or
Commissioner’s designee.
Credit: ACC Tiebreaker Policy
With the tiebreaker rules now established, what are the scenarios for the Tigers?
If Miami goes 1-1, SMU wins out, and Clemson beats Pitt, Clemson will play SMU in the ACC Championship.
If Miami wins out, SMU goes 1-1, and Clemson beat Pitt, Miami will play SMU in the ACC Championship (FSU & Louisville are the common opponents among all three teams. SMU and Miami went 2-0 against these opponents, and Clemson went 1-1).
If SMU 0-2, Miami wins out, and Clemson beat Pitt, Clemson will play Miami in the ACC Championship game.
So, Clemson is in a spot where they need to beat Pitt to finish ACC play with just one loss. How probable is this? Well, the Panthers have not been the good either of the last two weeks. They were blown out by SMU (48-25) and then loss to Virginia last week (24-19). The Tigers, though still not playing their best, just need to play at B+ game against a skidding Panthers squad.
Can they do it? Well, as we noted after the Virginia Tech game, the defense played phenomenal led by true freshman linebacker Sammy Brown. The offense has slowed down, but Phil Mafah has started to amp his play up. Clemson will have to lean on their veteran back to get everything going Saturday afternoon, but once he gets going, everything will get going offensively.
It does not matter that they need help, or that it looks improbable. All that matters is that the Clemson Tigers in 2024 still have a chance to wear their orange pants in Charlotte on the first Saturday of December.
