As We Head Into February…

Happy February! We have just finished Week 5 of ACC play and we are now officially one month into league play and what a year it’s been, but this is the week we’ve all been waiting for. It is Duke vs North Carolina week. We’re going to be giving you the same coverage here we do every week but with a slight addition to the tournament outlook! Now that we are in February we are going to incorporate BracketMatrix.com which is a website that compiles all the bracketology across the college basketball-sphere so for example Duke is in 97/97 brackets (as of February 1st) with an average seed of 1.00. The matrix is my go to hub for figuring out where teams stand on the bubble and different seedlines and is tremendously accurate year after year. Without further ado let’s get to work

 

1. Duke Blue Devils 20-1 (9-0)

Last week: Won 83-52 vs Louisville, Won 72-58 @ Virginia Tech

 

Duke didn’t wait until the second half to rip out Louisville’s heart this time as an 18-3 run in the final minutes of the first frame put the Blue Devils in the driver’s seat of what would become a dominant victory and a nation leading ninth Quad 1 victory. Duke held the Cardinals to 5-20 from 2, 11-34 from 3, and outrebounded UofL by 21 in a suffocating effort. Boozer had another double-double with a team leading 19. Then on Saturday in a place where Duke had lost 5 of the last 7 Duke managed to keep the Hokies at arms length for their 20th win of the season. VT never led, but every time they’d go down by 12-15 they’d fight right back into it, eventually the Hokies had it down to a 6 point game but Duke ended the game on a 10-2 run to take this one. Duke shot just 5-21 from 3 but were 26-38 from 2 and once again crushed the glass. This is Duke’s best start to a season since 2008 and it all leads to this week. A home date with BC is all that stands between the Blue Devils and part one in the 2026 edition of the Duke-UNC rivalry with this one taking place in Chapel Hill. Thankfully as fans we can afford to overlook games and honestly BC is bad enough that Duke probably can afford it too. This will be the 88th all-time meeting between Duke and UNC where both teams are ranked with the Tar Heels having a slight edge 44-43 while the all-time series is 145-120 North Carolina. This rendition of the game will feature two of the best young bigs in the sport with Cameron Boozer against Caleb Wilson, but don’t overlook both teams second best big man with Duke’s Patrick Ngongba and UNC’s Henri Veesaar this is going to be an old school low post battle and I cannot wait.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 3rd vs Boston College 7pm ACCN, February 7th @ North Carolina 6:30pm ESPN

Tournament outlook: #2 NET, Beat UNC

Bracket Matrix: 97/97, Average seed: 1.00

 

2. Clemson Tigers 18-4 (8-1)

Last week: Won 63-52 vs Pittsburgh

 

Clemson followed up their week off with a nice controlling victory against a hapless Pitt squad. The Tigers led by as many as 20 as Pitt shot under 20% from deep and turned the ball over on 24.8% of their possessions in a classic Brad Brownell defensive effort for his 200th career home win. No one scored more than 12 points but 9 Tigers scored in total in a group effort. Now Clemson will hit the road for the ACC west coast road trip with a chance for at least one more Quad 1 victory. First up is a midweek late night tip against a reeling Stanford team losers of four straight. Clemson’s defense vs one of the best individual scorers in the country is going to be a fascinating matchup but with Chisom Okpara now done for the season for Stanford Clemson should be able to feast on this team. Then in the second leg of this road trip a matchup awaits with a Cal team that is kind of just temu Clemson? A team that went heavy in the portal and is defense first is hardly unique but watching these two teams play it is remarkable how similar they are, albeit with Clemson being a good bit better. A 2-0 week would all but lock Clemson into the field ahead of an absolutely titanic showdown next week.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 4th @ Stanford 10pm ACCN, February 7th @ Cal 8pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #31 NET, 3 more games to Duke

Bracket Matrix: 97/97, Average seed: 6.29

 

3. Virginia Cavaliers 18-3 (7-2)

Last week: Won 100-97 (2OT) @ Notre Dame, Won 73-66 @ Boston College

 

The Cavaliers trailed by as many as 19 and were down 6 with 2 minutes to go in regulation, down by 3 with under 20 seconds in the first overtime, and were trailing with a little over a minute to go in the second overtime and still won in one of the wildest ACC games of the season. Thijs De Ridder had 32 points including 14-15 from the line, UVA as a whole going 28-35 in the game in the comeback win. Sam Lewis had 21 on 5 made 3s including the last-second shot to send the game to a second overtime. It is tied for the largest comeback in UVA men’s hoops history. Then in Chestnut Hill the Cavaliers trailed early again but never to the extent they did in South Bend and eventually took a lead they’d never relinquish but also never extend beyond single digits. It was a weird game where De Ridder once again was the MVP but the ‘Hoos offense struggled shooting 4-23 from 3 and on defense they sent the Eagles to the line 26 times, lucking out that BC could only make 15 of them. It was a pretty tight week for the Cavaliers on the road but a 2-0 record is a 2-0 record and they’ll return home to face Pitt and Syracuse this week. Against Pitt this has all the makings for a get right game for Ryan Odom’s team as Pitt has completely checked out on this season and then the Syracuse game is a fascinating one as the Orange’s consistent inconsistency could make them either a complete push over or the latest team to send UVA to the edge.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 3rd vs Pittsburgh 9pm ACCN, February 7th vs Syracuse 12pm ESPN

Tournament outlook: #18 NET, Chance to really stack some wins coming up here

Bracket Matrix: 97/97, Average seed: 4.29

 

4. North Carolina State Wolfpack 16-6 (7-2)

Last week: Won 88-68 vs Syracuse, Won 96-78 @ Wake Forest

 

Make it four straight wins for Will Wade’s Wolfpack with the most recent pair in dominating fashion this past week. Quadir Copeland lit up his former team for 19 points and Darrion Williams’ 23 as well as Ven-Allen Lubin’s 18 points really showed out in a complete performance. Then on the road against rival Wake NCSU poured in 16 3s with 6 of those coming from Paul McNeil in what was N.C. State’s finest offensive performance of the season against a high major opponent. The Wolfpack have cemented themselves as a serious contender for the ACC regular season crown but the schedule is about to really ramp up with six consecutive games against NCAA Tournament caliber teams. First up this week is a Quad 1 road game against Boopie Miller and SMU where the Mustang’s offense vs Wolfpack defense is going to be the big storyline. These are the kinds of wins N.C. State would really like to have to bump themselves up the seed lines. Then on Saturday against Virginia Tech it will be a bit of the opposite as the Hokies’ potent defense tries to slow down the State barrage. When the Wolfpack are hitting jumpshots they are as hard to stop as anyone in the country and I think early in both of these games we will know which team we are gonna get that day.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 3rd @ SMU 9pm ESPN2, February 7th vs VT 12pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #26 NET, Putting themselves solidly in

Bracket Matrix: 97/97, Average seed: 9.09

 

5. Miami Hurricanes 17-5 (6-3)

Last week: Won 79-70 vs Stanford, Lost 86-85 vs Cal

 

Miami pretty much played the same game twice this week and played both roles in each of them. Against Stanford the Hurricanes trailed early and often and ultimately by as many as 9 nearly halfway through the second half but after Stanford took a 56-53 lead with around seven and a half minutes to go Miami caught fire with a 14-2 run giving them the lead and holding on for a nice win despite shooting 19-31 from the FT line. Four Hurricanes scored in double figures led by Malik Reneau’s 20. Then against Cal, Miami was out in front early and led by 11 with 9:41 to go before a 19-7 run by Cal just stonewalled the ‘Canes in the eventual loss. Once again Miami struggled from the line shooting 23-33 and are now shooting under 70% from the line as a team on the year. Losing to Cal is far from a bad loss but doing so after leading by double digits late is tough to swallow with wins like these being a big difference maker on the bubble. The Miami perimeter defense has also been struggling as of late with Cal shooting 10-23 from 3 and the season opponent 3pt% ballooning to 35% which ranks 264th in the nation. The good news for MIami is they get a whole week to sit on this feeling before they get to play Boston College.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 7th @ Boston College 2pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #39 NET, Maybe start making free throws? I dunno

Bracket Matrix: 93/97, Average seed: 10.10

 

6. North Carolina Tar Heels 17-4 (5-3)

Last week: Won 91-75 @ Georgia Tech

 

The Tar Heels took care of business against GT in a truly masterful display of valuing the basketball. UNC assisted on 58.3% of their made field goals while only turning the ball over 2 times in the entire game. Wilson and Veesaar both had 20+ with Henri also picking up 12 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 2 steals. Now all eyes turn to this week of the utmost importance. A home game against Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Syracuse before the Duke game should have the CBB world buzzing. While Duke will be playing BC, UNC can hardly afford to overlook a talented Syracuse team that really loves playing to the level of their competition. The length Syracuse has on their roster should provide a nice trial run for what the Tar Heels will be facing on Saturday in the Dean Dome. In a Duke-UNC game so ripe with frontcourt talent could it be a member of the backcourt that makes the difference and etches their name in the lore of this series? If so you’d be hard pressed to bet against Seth Trimble who has been playing excellent basketball as of late. With a game that figures to be as close as this the fact that both Duke and UNC struggle from the FT line is an interesting tidbit to consider, whoever is able to buck that trend might just be the ones that take it home on Saturday.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 2nd vs Syracuse 7pm ESPN, February 7th vs Duke 6:30 ESPN

Tournament outlook: #25 NET, Beat Duke

Bracket Matrix: 97/97, Average seed: 5.58

 

7. Louisville Cardinals 15-6 (5-4)

Last week: Lost 83-52 @ Duke, Won 88-74 vs SMU

 

Well that escalated quickly huh? Louisville led 25-24 in Cameron Indoor with 4:30 left in the first half and then were outscored 59-27 the rest of the way in a rout so bad that Louisville fans were actually questioning whether or not Pat Kelsey was the man for Louisville. Those questions turned into full blown panic as the Cards trailed by double digits for much of the first half of a home tilt against SMU before a commanding second half that saw Louisville lead by as many as 17 in a very nice win. Mikel Brown Jr. came off the bench and had 5 turnovers in the first half but started the second half with the starters and finished with a team-high 20 points. Louisville’s bench outscored SMU’s 47-5 and the Mustangs just could not keep up with that. Now Louisville will turn its sights on a much softer week beginning with one of the Big East’s most underrated rivalries that has unfortunately fizzled out after both squads joined the ACC. Notre Dame and Louisville played in 7 overtime games from 2006-2013 with 3 of those being multiple OTs! Last year Louisville snapped a four game losing streak in the series and the prospect of a Burton-less Irish squad does not portend a return to the halcyon times of this matchup. Then on Saturday Louisville will travel to Winston-Salem to try and pick up their fourth Quad 1 win of the year, as long as Wake Forest remains a Q1 game that is.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 4th vs Notre Dame 7pm ESPN2, February 7th @ Wake Forest 12pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #17 NET, “Breathe in, Breathe out” – Machinehead by Bush

Bracket Matrix: 97/97, Average seed: 6.19

 

8. SMU Mustangs 15-6 (4-4)

Last week: Lost 88-74 @ Louisville

 

It really looked like the ‘Stangs had themselves one on Saturday in Louisville but the lack of scoring depth around Boopie Miller really showed itself after an early lead evaporated. A 7/16 assist-to-turnover ratio will barely win you games against the bottom of the conference much less on the road against Louisville. The defense has started to show cracks with opponents ripping down 32% of their own misses and shooting 52.4% from 2 as SMU has a serious paint security crisis on their hands. A huge opportunity looms at home against NCSU but the Wolfpack offense is going to pose a massive threat against the defensive struggles of SMU. The good news for the Mustangs is that the Wolfpack are liable to just shoot 6-20 from 3 which could leave the game in doubt long enough for Boopie Miller to make some magic happen. A loss to State wouldn’t be the end of the world but wins like this could go a long way in SMU’s tournament hopes. Then to end the week SMU will head on the road to take on a listless Pitt squad that they cannot under any circumstances afford to lose to.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 3rd vs N.C. State 9pm ESPN2, February 7th @ Pitt 2pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #34 NET, Don’t lose to Pitt dude

Bracket Matrix: 97/97, Average seed: 7.57

 

9. Virginia Tech Hokies 16-7 (5-5)

Last week: Won 71-65 vs Georgia Tech, Lost 72-58 vs Duke

 

The ACC’s bubbliest bubble team to ever bubble had a very bubbly week. A win against Georgia Tech where they led by double digits for almost the entire time until a late GT run made the score look worse followed by a game against Duke where the Hokies just could not buy a big momentum shot when they needed one. They trailed the entire time but would get it down to 6-7 points before Duke would get the cushion right back. Not being able to take advantage of a day where Duke shot 23.8% from 3 is going to haunt VT if they find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble in March. Thankfully for the Hokies they get the week off before a massive road game against N.C. State. This would be a huge third Quad 1 victory for Mike Young’s team and the kind of win that immediately bumps them up the bubble pecking order. Stopping the Wolfpack offense is a lot easier said than done but you have to think eventually VT could luck into a good shooting night right?

 

Upcoming schedule: February 7th @ N.C. State 12pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #55 NET, No I mean really you do gotta win one of these types soon

Bracket Matrix: 61/97, Average seed: 10.80

 

10. California Golden Bears 16-6 (4-5)

Last week: Lost 63-61 @ Florida State, Won 86-85 @ Miami

 

Cal split their road trip in the opposite way I think most people thought they would. Losing an absolute clunker to a horrible Florida State team before winning a classic shootout against Miami but really if you’ve been following Cal this year this is pretty on-brand. Against FSU both teams just looked like they had gone to space before the game and this was their first time touching earth as both shot under 40% from the field. Dai Dai Ames really struggled with 11 points on 5-15 from the field. But then against Miami the Golden Bears were able to keep their tournament hopes alive with a thrilling win as Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut’s only 2 points of the game came with 57 seconds left to give Cal the lead for good. John Camden led the Golden Bears with 26 as the team shot 43.5% from 3 and made 24 Free Throws in the win. Now Cal returns home for the first time since January 17th to face Georgia Tech in a must-win before a huge game against Clemson. Cal is structurally very similar to Clemson so if you are a fan of defensive basketball be sure to tune in Saturday night as Cal looks to make a statement.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 4th vs Georgia Tech 8pm ACCN, February 7th vs Clemson 8pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #51 NET, I mean really dude? Florida State? Let’s be serious.

Bracket Matrix: 21/97, Average seed: 11.00

 

11. Syracuse Orange 13-9 (4-5)

Last week: Lost 88-68 @ N.C. State, Won 86-72 vs Notre Dame

 

Syracuse got obliterated by NCSU for their fourth straight loss before bouncing back with a win against Notre Dame where they really pulled away late. Syracuse never led vs the Wolfpack but they did have it as close as 2 points in the early moments of the 2nd half before a State avalanche crushed the Orange. Against Notre Dame Syracuse simply just made nearly everything, shooting 22-31 from 2 and 10-25 from 3 with each 3 seeming like a perfect momentum killer after a ND run. The Irish had it to a 6-point game but Syracuse immediately went on a run in the next 1:30 to shut the game down. Technically the Orange aren’t completely dead yet and few teams in their situation have the opportunities on the schedule that Syracuse finds themselves with, but whether or not Adrian Autry’s squad will be able to take advantage of them is another question entirely. There is some hope however, maybe the Orange can catch UNC looking ahead to the big Duke game and then finally be the team to get Virginia after several close calls…probably not though.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 2nd @ UNC 7pm ESPN, February 7th @ Virginia 12pm ESPN

Tournament outlook: #72 NET, I mean if there was ever a week

Bracket Matrix: 0/97

 

12. Stanford Cardinal 14-8 (3-6)

Last week: Lost 79-70 @ Miami, Lost 88-80 @ Florida State

 

Whoo boy this thing has come undone quickly huh? Four straight Ls for Stanford has pushed their season to the brink as the news of the season-ending nature of Chisom Okpara’s injury has left Stanford completely unprepared for Ebuka Okorie to also be going through a rough patch shooting the ball. Couple that with a defense that isn’t that great to being with but now has started sending teams to the Free Throw line like its a charity case and you have a recipe for disaster. The strength of their wins has Stanford barely holding on to a shot at the dance but they need to right this ship quickly. The game vs Clemson on Wednesday is of the utmost importance. Okorie is going to need to get going early and often to try and tap back into that confidence he had at the beginning of ACC play. Then against Georgia Tech well, I mean, just don’t lose.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 4th vs Clemson 10pm ACCN, February 7th vs Georgia Tech 8pm ESPNU

Tournament outlook: #78 NET, If a tree falls in the woods…

Bracket Matrix: 8/97, Average seed: 11.13

 

13. Florida State Seminoles 10-12 (3-6)

Last week: Won 63-61 vs Cal, Won 88-80 vs Stanford

 

They call them the winners of three of their last four Seminoles don’t they? A 2-0 week from Florida State against two ACC bubble teams is one of the more unexpected results of league play so far but Luke Loucks’ team is starting to show some important signs of life. They won two wildly different games this week with the absolute rock fight against Cal and the high scoring shootout vs Stanford. Chauncey Wiggins was just about the only player to shoot efficiently against Cal as he made what would end up being the game winning basket. The Noles shot 22-30 from 2 against Stanford and led by as many as 19 in their best effort since the non-conference. They get the week off before a road trip to South Bend to take on the Irish who have been playing some very bad defense as of late in what could be a shootout.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 7th @ Notre Dame 4pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #101 NET, No dude

Bracket Matrix: 0/97

 

14. Boston College Eagles 9-12 (2-6)

Last week: Lost 73-66 vs UVA

 

Boston College put a real bother into Virginia as they led for a lot of the first half before ceding control to the Cavs in the second although the Eagles never quite went away. Donald Hand had 20 points in a really strong effort. Now this week the Eagles are going on the road to take on Duke before a home game vs Miami where they could really throw a wrench in the Hurricanes’ postseason plans

 

Upcoming schedule: February 3rd @ Duke 7pm ACCN, February 7th vs Miami 2pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #153 NET, The Patriots play this week

Bracket Matrix: 0/97

 

15. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11-11 (2-7)

Last week: Lost 100-97 (2OT) vs UVA, Lost 86-72 vs Syracuse

 

The Irish really almost had ‘em on Tuesday. Cole Certa had 34 and just about three different shots that seemed like they sealed the deal but as previously documented, that was not the case. Then against Syracuse the Irish defense was completely dissected and the offense just couldn’t give enough to keep them in it all the way. 6-22 from 3 on the night was the big difference maker. One bright spot for the Irish lately has been Jalen Haralson who is finally coming into form as his season average is now sitting at 15.5 points per game which is 14th in the ACC. Between him, Certa, and Koehler this Irish team does have some legit young talent but they just cannot buy a win right now. They’ll get two cracks at it this week on the road against former Big East rival Louisville, a team Notre Dame is well accustomed to playing close, and a home date with Florida State who was the last ACC team to get a conference win and now has more league victories than ND.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 4th @ Louisville 7pm ESPN2, February 7th vs Florida St. 4pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #85 NET, My watch has ended.

Bracket Matrix: 0/97

 

16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 11-11 (2-7)

Last week: Lost 71-65 @ Virginia Tech, Lost 91-75 vs UNC

 

GT actually played Virginia Tech pretty well on the road as they held the Hokies to 9-29 shooting from downtown…the only issue is the Yellow Jackets themselves shot 3-17 from 3. Between that, the 14 turnovers, and missing a handful of Free Throws it was just not enough. Then at home Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar lit GT on fire and threw them into a canyon. Now the Yellow Jackets will go on the west coast road trip along with Clemson to experience the sights and sounds of late night ACC Network broadcasts. This trip does however give GT the chance to do what they always love to do which is absolutely torpedo ACC bubble teams and their tournament hopes.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 4th @ Cal 8pm ACCN, February 7th @ Stanford 8pm ESPNU

Tournament outlook: #142 NET, Picked first in the ACC baseball preseason poll!

Bracket Matrix: 0/97

 

17. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 11-11 (2-7)

Last week: Lost 80-76 (OT) @ Pitt, Lost 96-78 vs N.C. State

 

Steve Forbes’ magical mystery tour is nearing its end. An overtime loss to fellow cellar dweller Pitt and a blowout loss at home is just another chapter in this season of total failure in Winston-Salem. The non-conference performance is still keeping this team afloat in the metrics providing a Quad 1 victory to the rest of the league for as long as they can which is probably the best thing they’ve done all season. Wake will get the week off before a Saturday tilt with Louisville at home.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 7th vs Louisville 12pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #73 NET, Still technically a Q1 win right now somehow

Bracket Matrix: 0/97

 

18. Pittsburgh Panthers 9-13 (2-7)

Last week: Won 80-76 (OT) vs Wake Forest, Lost 63-52 @ Clemson

 

Pitt picked up their second ACC win of the season with four different players scoring in double figures to help the Panthers overcome multiple double digit deficits and a 4 point hole with under two minutes to go. Pitt then followed that up by having 16 points at halftime vs Clemson and trailing by as many as 20 in a blowout loss on the road. This week Pitt will face off against Virginia and SMU in a pretty brutal two game stretch for anyone much less Jeff Capel’s team.

 

Upcoming schedule: February 3rd @ UVA 9pm ACCN, February 7th vs SMU 2pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #111 NET, Hey man the Penguins are on a tear

Bracket Matrix: 0/97