A positively wild week of upsets, injuries, and standings shifting brings us to around the midpoint of February and the final stretch of the regular season of College Basketball. While it is so late in the season a few ACC teams stepped out of conference play to try and notch some big wins, but the biggest non conference game of the entire season is set for this week. Let’s dive in.
1. Duke Blue Devils 23-2 (12-1)
Last week: Won 70-54 @ Pittsburgh, Won 67-54 vs Clemson
The Blue Devils followed up the loss to North Carolina with an emphatically dominating week taking care of business vs the team at the very bottom of the ACC standings before dispatching the then #2 squad in Cameron. Against Clemson the game was a pretty even back and forth affair until the final minutes of the first half where Duke’s defense really began to wear down the Tigers. This paved the way to a 2nd half where Duke dominated the pace of play and put Clemson into a chokehold they just couldn’t escape, leading by as many as 22 and holding the Tigers to their lowest scoring output in the last three seasons. Now Duke turns their attention to a Monday matchup at home vs an interesting Syracuse squad and a potential game of the year in our nation’s capital against Michigan. Syracuse’s offensive style really does not bode well against Duke’s defense and it is hard to imagine anyone on this Orange squad being able to stand up to Boozer and Sarr down low. Against Michigan however we might be getting the best non-conference game of the past decade. Cam Boozer vs Yaxel Lendeborg is a true battle of superstars with Michigan being one of the few teams in the country that has the length to compete with Duke as Morez Johnson and Aday Mara combine with Lendeborg to form one of the fiercest defensive trios in college basketball. One big advantage for Duke in this one is going to be Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster against the guards of Michigan. The only real knock against this game is that it isn’t on a college campus but for right now sign me up for this game 24/7/365 I cannot wait.
Upcoming schedule: February 16th vs Syracuse 7pm ESPN, February 21st @ Michigan (Washington, DC) 6:30 ESPN
Tournament outlook: #2 NET, Final Four preview?
Bracket Matrix: 102/102 , Average seed: 1.00
2. Virginia Cavaliers 22-3 (10-2)
Last week: Won 61-58 @ Florida State, Won 70-66 @ Ohio State
Virginia had the kind of week you have in school where you have some big assignments due and you wait until the very last second to do everything and you completely get away with it. Which is honestly something that could be said about the Cavaliers this entire ACC season. Against FSU, Virginia had an abhorrently bad shooting day and were out-attempted in FTs 22-8 and trailed by 7 with under six minutes to go before a 11-1 run to end the game which saw the Seminoles miss 7 3s. Then against Ohio State, UVA once again had a bad shooting day coupled with a handful of turnovers and 10 missed FTs in a game they trailed by as many as 11 points before a 13-2 run flipped a tightly contested game on its head. After a 2-0 week the Wahoos find themselves right in the thick of the ACC regular season title chase and get a road trip to take on Georgia Tech before a home game vs a surging Miami squad. GT should be an easy dispatch but never underestimate the ability of teams to play weird games in that arena especially with the shooting UVA has had lately. Malik Reneau of Miami vs UVA’s Thijs De Ridder is going to be a great battle down low in what should be a raucous crowd in Charlottesville where I think the Virginia defense is going to make things very hard for The U.
Upcoming schedule: February 18th @ GT 9pm ACCN, February 21st vs Miami 2pm ESPN
Tournament outlook: #19 NET, Right back in the title hunt
Bracket Matrix: 102/102, Average seed: 4.23
3. Clemson Tigers 20-6 (10-3)
Last week: Lost 76-66 vs VT, Lost 67-54 @ Duke
Well boy howdy Clemson that just wasn’t your week was it. The Tigers returned home to face a desperate and hungry VT team and just couldn’t match their intensity. The Hokies shot 11-21 from 3 and in turn held Clemson to 5-16 from downtown which just really kept Clemson from being able to make a dent in the Hokies lead once it stretched to double digits. The Tigers still were able to get it back within 5-6 points but it just wasn’t enough with an 11-18 performance from the FT line not making anything easier. It certainly wasn’t the game you wanted to have in a week where you could take sole possession of first place in the ACC, and then in that very next game at Duke the Tigers were just overwhelmed. Duke’s defense made their lives just completely miserable and the interior defense from Clemson was purely theoretical and Duke ran up and down the floor during a second half run where they just took control of the game. Despite the 0-2 week Clemson’s metrics really did not take a hit in this one and the Tigers get a bounceback opportunity against one of the worst teams in the ACC in Wake, as Juke Harris will be hard pressed to get his game off against Clemson’s defense, and then a FSU team that is playing decent right now but still shouldn’t be a match in LittleJohn with the added bonus of a homecoming game for former Tiger Chauncey Wiggins.
Upcoming schedule: February 18th @ Wake Forest 7pm ACCN, February 21st vs Florida St. 12pm The CW
Tournament outlook: #32 NET, Just gotta bounce back
Bracket Matrix: 102/102, Average seed: 7.04
4. Miami Hurricanes 20-5 (9-3)
Last week: Won 75-66 vs UNC, Won 77-76 @ NCSU
Miami really took advantage of the opportunities they were provided this week, notching a mighty impressive 2-0 week that is going to look really nice for their tournament résumé. I expect as the bracketmatrix updates to fully encapsulate the weekend the Hurricanes tournament picture will look a lot better. Against UNC, Miami never trailed thanks in part to absolutely owning the paint shooting 26-49 from 2, nabbing 12 offensive rebounds, blocking 5 shots, and getting to the line 23 times while only giving UNC 10 FT attempts. Miami’s starting 5 combined for 66 of their 75 points led by Ernest Udeh who had 15 and 10. Then in Raleigh Miami couldn’t buy a make from deep shooting 3-17 and missed 10 free throws and trailed by 7 with a minute to go after a N.C. State 11-0 run seemingly sealed it for the Wolfpack. But Malik Reneau and Tru Washington made it a 76-74 game and with 3 seconds left Washington rised from 3 point land and missed, but a whistle gave him 3 FTs and on a day where Miami shot 10-20 from the line Washington nailed every single one to give Miami the win. Now after facing two NC schools the Hurricanes will take on both the Virginia schools starting with a home date against VT, a team that is fighting with its back up against the wall for a NCAAT spot before a road showdown with Virginia in a game with big ACC standings implications. VT’s ability in the paint and getting guys into foul trouble could be a really important part of this game as the Hokies need a win like this to stay in the hunt. But Miami’s size and strength is nothing to scoff at and it is something that should help them against UVA. But it is hard to imagine them beating the Cavaliers if they don’t hit 70+ percent of their FTs in that game.
Upcoming schedule: February 17th vs VT 8pm ACCN, February 21st @ UVA 2pm ESPN
Tournament outlook: #35 NET, Keep stacking wins
Bracket Matrix: 102/102, Average seed: 9.37
5. North Carolina State Wolfpack 18-8 (9-4)
Last week: Lost 118-77 @ Louisville, Lost 77-76 vs Miami
If you thought Clemson had a bad week just wait until you see what happened to the Wolfpack. In a very hyped up Big Monday game on the road against Louisville, N.C. State surrendered a 40-point performance to Mikel Brown Jr. and got absolutely torched allowing the Cardinals to shoot 18-30 from 3 on the night. Then in the aforementioned Miami game the ‘Pack surrendered a 7-point lead with a minute to go to a Miami team that couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn when it came to jumpshots or free throws. It was a week so bad Will Wade publicly said he wasn’t sure if his team belongs in the NCAA tournament. While I think that was a bit of an overreaction, if they Wolfpack can’t turn it around soon there will be some serious questions raised and the path does not get easier this week. Two original ACC rivalries take place with N.C. State taking on UNC and Virginia this week, two teams with a combined record of 42-8. One big advantage NCSU has in the matchup with the Tar Heels is the porous perimeter defense UNC employs while the Wolfpack shoot nearly 40% from 3 as a team with the added elephant in the room of the injury to Caleb Wilson meaning UNC is down their best player and important interior threat against former Tar Heel Ven-Allen Lubin. Then vs UVA we’ve got two teams that are pretty addicted to playing close games down to the wire with potential All-ACC big men clashing down low. N.C. State’s offense and UVA’s defense are two of the best units in the ACC.
Upcoming schedule: February 17th vs UNC 7pm ESPN, February 21st @ UVA 7pm ACCN
Tournament outlook: #29 NET, Out of the frying pan into the fire
Bracket Matrix: 102/102, Average seed: 7.68
6. North Carolina Tar Heels 20-5 (9-4)
Last week: Lost 75-66 @ Miami, Won 79-65 vs Pitt
Well it is impossible to overstate how much of a blow North Carolina received when it was announced this past week that Caleb Wilson broke his left hand in the loss to Miami which figures to keep him out until the ACC Tournament at the earliest. This was only compounded with the fact that Henri Veesaar also missed the Pitt game with an illness and lower-body injury. Veesaar is improving on both of those fronts and will be evaluated after practice today to see if he is going to be good to go in Raleigh. Given the week they had it is a good sign that the Tar Heels were able to completely handle Pitt in a wire-to-wire win where they led by as many as 22. Now without Wilson and potentially without Veesaar the Tar Heels travel on the road to face off against rival N.C. State and then head north to Syracuse. Against State without Wilson and especially without Veesaar it might be a very tough hill to climb given the prolific 3 point offense of the Wolfpack will be primed and ready to go and now if they don’t have either of their best interior presences Ven-Allen Lubin could eat. I do feel more confident in UNC’s ability to shut down Donnie Freeman and Syracuse especially given that Veesaar should be good to go for this one.
Upcoming schedule: February 17th @ NCSU 7pm ESPN, February 21st @ Syracuse 1pm ABC
Tournament outlook: #25 NET, Get well soon Caleb Wilson
Bracket Matrix: 102/102, Average seed: 5.41
7. Louisville Cardinals 19-6 (8-4)
Last week: 118-77 vs NCSU, Won 82-71 @ Baylor
Complete and utter destruction is what Louisville wrecked upon N.C. State this past week in a game that saw Mikel Brown Jr. knock down 10 3s and Louisville as a whole shoot 18-30 from deep. Brown had 45 total points and Ryan Conwell had 31 and if Louisville only had those two players they still would have barely lost to the Wolfpack. The blowout win was absolutely massive for Louisville’s metrics and they followed it up with a win over Baylor that after the first half was in firm Cardinal control. Brown Jr. had 29 points as he has averaged nearly 20ppg since returning from injury in mid-January. Louisville held Baylor to 2-22 shooting from deep and not even 25-30 from the FT line could save the Bears. This week Louisville hits the road for a big opportunity against SMU to add another nice win to their belt and vie for a BYE in the ACC tournament. That gets easier in a home game on Saturday vs an absolutely reeling Georgia Tech team. Boopie Miller vs Mikel Brown Jr. is an absolutely star studded guard matchup and one that should be appointment viewing this Tuesday. This game will probably really come down to which team’s supporting cast helps out their star the best be it Louisville’s Ryan Conwell, Isaac McKneely, and J’Vonne Headley or SMU’s Jaron Pierre, BJ Edwards, and Samet Yigitoglu. A win against SMU could go a long way in getting Louisville some more separation in the 4-6 seed range. Then they need to not undo that work by dropping one to GT.
Upcoming schedule: February 17th @ SMU 7pm ESPN2, February 21st vs GT 2:15pm The CW
Tournament outlook: #12 NET, Just how high can they climb
Bracket Matrix: 102/102, Average seed: 5.61
8. SMU Mustangs 17-8 (6-6)
Last week: Won 89-81 vs Notre Dame, Lost 79-78 @ Syracuse
SMU’s defense nearly cost them their first game this week and then against Syracuse they didn’t have the 13 3s to bail them out. The game against Notre Dame saw both teams shoot a combined 24/53 from 3 with the Mustangs just barely able to outlast the Irish thanks to big games from Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre and a 19-2 second half run that put them ahead and in the driver’s seat. But despite leading by 12 with 12 minutes to go the Mustangs were not having the same kind of offensive performance and were outscored 30-17 from that point to the end of the game. Boopie Miller shot 3-11 from the field and Pierre was 4-12 while Jaden Toombs missed 2 critical FTs late that kept it a one point game. Despite all of that SMU had a chance to get a stop to win the game but a Nate Kingz layup with 2.3 seconds left drove the dagger through SMU’s heart. While Syracuse isn’t a bad loss in a vacuum, the bubble is so crowded this year that any additional losses at this point could put SMU in very dangerous territory. We’ll see where they shape up as the bracketology comes in after this weekend but the Mustangs can do a lot to make people forget about the Syracuse game with a home game vs Louisville this week. A win against the Cardinals would be huge but as seen in SMU’s 88-74 loss in the KFC Yum! Center they are going to have their hands full on defense against the endless barrage of Louisville 3s. One big thing working in SMU’s favor is that Boopie Miller tends to follow up disappointing games with big-time performances so we shall see what he has in store. Then this weekend SMU has a can’t lose game against Boston College at home. A 2-0 week would do wonders.
Upcoming schedule: February 17th vs Louisville 7pm ACCN, February 21st vs BC 4pm ACCN
Tournament outlook: #36 NET, Can potentially lock yourself in on Tuesday
Bracket Matrix: 102/102, Average seed: 9.13
9. California Golden Bears 18-8 (6-7)
Last week: Lost 107-100 (2OT) @ Syracuse, Won 86-75 @ Boston College
Almost any hope of a California at-large bid died in Syracuse on Wednesday it really feels like. There is only one more game left against a team projected in the field and the Golden Bears would have to win out in emphatic fashion and then nab a few wins in the ACC Tournament to have a shot. Cal had the ball with a shot to win at the end of regulation and led by 3 with around a minute left in the first overtime and just could not get it done. The win against BC is fine and this season is still a pretty massive success for Cal with a chance for their first 20-win season since 2017. But it has to feel like a pretty massive missed opportunity with 3 one possession losses vs non-tournament teams to go with this 2OT decision against a mediocre Syracuse team. They get a chance to go for the season sweep of their hated rival Stanford in their only game this week and their last stand starts here. Dai Dai Ames vs Ebuka Okorie should be a really fun watch.
Upcoming schedule: February 21st vs Stanford 6pm ACCN
Tournament outlook: #60 NET, I hate to be the BEARer of bad news,,,
Bracket Matrix: 11/102, Average seed: 11.00
10. Virginia Tech Hokies 17-9 (6-7)
Last week: Won 76-66 @ Clemson, Lost 92-69 vs Florida St.
Virginia Tech got their big break they needed taking down Clemson on the road for a massive résumé boosting win shooting 11-21 from 3 and holding Clemson to one of their worst offensive performances of the season and the Hokies managed to follow that up with a disastrous blowout home loss to Florida State. The Seminoles shot 22-32 from 2 and 12-23 from 3 in a complete and total barrage that included runs of 16-2 and 21-3 in the second half to completely take the game over. For Virginia Tech it was a game that just could not under any circumstances happen especially at home and they just squandered every inch they gained with the Clemson win and then some. The good news for VT is they have a good amount of remaining opportunities for big wins but they’re going to need to win the majority of them now at this point and it starts this Tuesday with a road game vs Miami who is red hot. It is hard to imagine VT’s defense holding up against Miami’s paint offense but the Hokies could always get lucky with Miami missing a billion free throws or maybe Neoklis Avdalas will actually show up for the first time since the non-conference. On Saturday VT will host Wake Forest in what is an absolute must-win game but so was Florida State. Juke Harris could go for a big performance against this VT defense right now but Wake might just be totally checked out which is maybe the best thing the Hokies have going for them in this one. Just a total missed opportunity by VT this season.
Upcoming schedule: February 17th @ Miami 8pm ACCN, February 21st vs Wake Forest 12pm ACCN
Tournament outlook: #56 NET, No because seriously why did you do that
Bracket Matrix: 30/102, Average seed: 10.97
11. Syracuse Orange 15-11 (6-7)
Last week: Won 107-100 (2OT) vs Cal, Won 79-78 vs SMU
The ACC’s most ridiculous team continues their tomfoolery with a 2-0 week against NCAA Tournament hopefuls in dramatic fashion. Against Cal the Orange shot 25-42 from the free throw line and 6-25 from 3 but knocked down nearly 70% of their 2 point attempts with four different 20-point scorers including Nate Kingz who would be the hero this weekend against SMU as well with a game-winning layup with just 2 seconds remaining to put the Orange ahead of SMU. It was a dramatic week with good wins but ultimately too little too late for Syracuse for the NCAA Tournament…unless of course they go 2-0 this week and then we start having some really interesting conversations. Ultimately they are conversations that we will not be having because it is hard to imagine the iso-ball inefficient scoring of Syracuse holding up against Duke on the road in the slightest and being the 363rd worst FT shooting team in America is not conducive to massive road upsets. But a home date with a Caleb Wilson-less UNC team could actually be a game if just for awhile. It would probably take a lot for Autry to save his job at this point but that would have to start this week.
Upcoming schedule: February 16th @ Duke 7pm ESPN, February 21st vs UNC 1pm ABC
Tournament outlook: #69 NET, I mean there’s just no way right
Bracket Matrix: 0/102
12. Florida State Seminoles 12-13 (5-7)
Last week: Lost 61-58 vs Virginia, Won 92-69 @ Virginia Tech
The Seminoles nearly pulled a giant upset at home vs Virginia but shot 6-33 from 3 and missed 6 free throws and surrendered an 11-1 run to end the game which snapped their 3-game winning streak before finishing the week with a blowout upset victory against Virginia Tech which may have put the Hokies’ tournament hopes on ice. FSU just exploded for a 37-9 run over the midpoint of the second half to take total control of the contest. Martin Somerville dropped 23 points off the bench with just two total missed shots. Luke Loucks is putting on a really good display of coaching in year 1 following Leonard Hamilton taking a team I don’t think anyone thought would be competitive in league play and navigating them through an 0-5 start to be competitive in a much better ACC as a whole. This week the Seminoles will look to get to .500 vs Boston College at home before a road trip to Clemson sees former Tiger Chauncey Wiggins making a homecoming.
Upcoming schedule: February 17th vs BC 6pm ACCN, February 21st @ Clemson 12pm The CW
Tournament outlook: #82 NET, No but also maybe the biggest bid stealing threat in the ACC
Bracket Matrix: 0/102
13. Stanford Cardinal 16-10 (5-8)
Last week: Won 70-64 @ Boston College, Lost 68-63 @ Wake Forest
I mean wow you can go ahead and put this season on ice for Stanford after a brief 2 game winning streak vs some of the worst teams the ACC has to offer was ended in Winston-Salem. Juke Harris vs Ebuka Okorie lived up to the hype with Harris getting 25 and the win while Okorie had 26 points and 10 of Stanford’s 22 made field goals on the day. But it was another late game disappearance by Stanford’s scoring as Wake ended the game on a 11-1 run to take the win after Stanford led by double digits in the second half and by 5-8 points for nearly the entire game. This year is still a step in the right direction no matter how disappointing it feels and now everything turns to being able to retain Okorie. Stanford goes on the road trying to split their rivalry series with Cal on Saturday.
Upcoming schedule: February 21st @ Cal 6pm ACCN
Tournament outlook: #70 NET, It is OVER
Bracket Matrix: 0/102
14. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 13-12 (4-8)
Last week: Won 83-67 @ Georgia Tech, Won 68-63 vs Stanford
A 2-0 week! In this economy? Wake gets back over .500 by handling business against Georgia Tech and then pulling off the comeback upset vs Stanford to all but finish their at-large chances. Juke Harris had 23 and 25 points in those two games and has been one of my favorite players to watch in the entire ACC this season. Wake will host Clemson to try and spring another home upset although Harris is going to struggle to get his shots off against the Clemson defense and Wake will need someone else to rise up and help him out. Then Wake can end another team’s tournament hopes on Saturday with a road game against Virginia Tech, a defense that is much more vulnerable to Harris’ exploits.
Upcoming schedule: February 18th vs Clemson 7pm ACCN, February 21st @ VT 12pm ACCN
Tournament outlook: #64 NET, Good guy Wake providing Q1 wins to the whole league
Bracket Matrix: 0/102
15. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 12-14 (3-10)
Last week: Lost 89-81 @ SMU, Won 89-74 vs Georgia Tech
Notre Dame put up a really good fight on the road against SMU but just didn’t have the sustained firepower to pull off the upset as SMU took control of the game with a 19-2 run the Irish just couldn’t climb out of fully. Then it was revealed that Jalen Haralson sprained his ankle in the final moments of that loss and that meant Notre Dame would be down a combined nearly 40 points per game from Markus Burton and Jalen Haralson in a true bottom dweller cellar match. But Notre Dame, and more specifically Cole Certa, responded with a huge performance. Certa had 37 points with a 7-11 performance from 3 while Braeden Shrewsberry had 20 as well. It was Notre Dame’s first win in nearly a month and one they just absolutely had to have against GT. ND will get a week off before a Saturday road trip to former Big East rival Pitt in another must-win if the Irish wish to qualify for the ACC Tournament.
Upcoming schedule: February 21st @ Pitt 2pm ACCN
Tournament outlook: #87 NET, Just make the ACC Tournament man
Bracket Matrix: 0/102
16. Boston College Eagles 9-16 (2-10)
Last week: Lost 70-64 vs Stanford, Lost 86-75 vs Cal
BC put up a decent fight vs Stanford and trailed by as many as 20 vs Cal for a sixth straight loss in what feels like a dead man walking situation for Earl Grant. This team is just flat out awful with very little in the way of redeeming qualities BUT they could upend SMU’s tournament hopes with a road victory this weekend after a midweek game vs Florida State.
Upcoming schedule: February 17th @ FSU 6pm ACCN, February 21st @ SMU 4pm ACCN
Tournament outlook: #153 NET, The hockey team is really rolling huh
Bracket Matrix: 0/102
17. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 11-15 (2-11)
Last week: Lost 83-67 vs Wake Forest, Lost 89-74 @ Notre Dame
Georgia Tech looks like a team that has completely and totally quit with a 7th straight loss after falling to two fellow bottom feeder ACC teams in blowout fashion. Nearly all of their league losses have been by the way of a blowout in fact and that figure doesn’t look to change very soon with two games this week against very good Virginia and Louisville squads.
Upcoming schedule: February 18th vs UVA 9pm ACCN, February 21st @ Louisville 2:15pm The CW
Tournament outlook: #163 NET, What an opening series by the baseball team
Bracket Matrix: 0/102
18. Pittsburgh Panthers 9-17 (2-11)
Last week: Lost 70-54 vs Duke, Lost 79-65 @ North Carolina
Pitt put up a first half fight vs Duke and then got absolutely crushed in the next 50 minutes of basketball they played this week with a fifth straight loss all by double digits. The Panthers host Notre Dame in what feels like an ACC Tournament elimination game between two once proud basketball programs in a bygone era on Saturday.
Upcoming schedule: February 21st vs Notre Dame 2pm ACCN
Tournament outlook: #122 NET, I’ve got nothing at this point
Bracket Matrix: 0/102
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