Welcome To March

We’ve finally made it to March. The crown jewel of any college basketball season is upon us and we step into the final week of ACC play with very little set in stone from the standings to the bubble to who is even going to be making the trip to Charlotte next week! Let’s dive in.

 

1. Duke Blue Devils 27-2 (15-1)

Last week: Won 100-56 @ Notre Dame, Won 77-51 vs Virginia

 

Duke cemented their spot at the top of the polls with a week where they went 2-0 with a +70 point differential. The win against Virginia gave the Blue Devils at least a share of the ACC regular season title and clinched the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament. Duke is now first in the NET and KenPom and their 12 Quad 1 victories is second to only Arizona, another consensus 1 seed. Against Notre Dame the Blue Devils handed the Irish their worst home loss in program history and snapped the Irish’s 7 game-winning streak against AP #1 teams at home. While on Saturday, Duke stepped onto their home floor in a game between the first and second place teams in the league it didn’t look like it. After the first four minutes Duke went on a run to make it 19-9 and the game would never be in single-digits again. Duke just mangled the Cavaliers holding them to just 7-35 from 3 and 9-20 from 2 point range with only Thijs De Ridder scoring in double figures. Conversely Duke shot 12-24 from 3 and outrebounded UVA 37-29. Duke needs just one win this week to clinch the outright regular season title but they’ll be doing so against a duo of in-state rivals starting on Monday in Raleigh against a floundering State squad. The Wolfpack can absolutely launch it from deep but have struggled to get much of anything going in the second halves of games losing four of their last five. Preseason ACC POY Darrion Williams has really struggled to find his shot scoring over 15 points just once in the last month. Duke will have a huge advantage on the offensive end but this one could be dicey against a desperate Wolfpack team. Then in the regular season finale the second rendition of Duke-Carolina takes center stage with a primetime slot and the potential return of Caleb Wilson. Duke’s last loss at home? March 9th, 2024 vs North Carolina. We’ve already seen one instant classic between these two and if Wilson is indeed ready to go we could be in for an all-timer.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 2nd @ NCSU 7pm ESPN, March 7th vs UNC 6:30pm ESPN

Tournament outlook: #1 NET, What’s a little rivalry week to end the season eh

Bracket Matrix: 92/92 , Average seed: 1.00

 

2. Virginia Cavaliers 25-4 (13-3)

Last week: Won 90-61 vs N.C. State, Lost 77-51 @ Duke

 

Virginia went from potentially its highest high of the season to its lowest low in the span of one week as after obliterating NCSU, off the back of a 14-1 run to end the first half, the Wahoos no-show’d in Cameron Indoor in a game that as previously mentioned, wasn’t within single-digits after the first handful of minutes. UVA led 15-3 early against State and really didn’t look back as further runs of 14-1 and 14-2 put this one on ice. The UVA defense held the ACC’s 2nd best 3 point shooting offense to just 9-33 from 3 while five Cavaliers scored in double figures. The loss to Duke was just a complete discombobulation and one that UVA will have to figure out if they want to win the ACC Tournament. UVA technically still has a shot at a share of the ACC regular season title but they’d need Duke to go 0-2. The Cavs just need a single win to clinch a double bye in the ACC tournament and they’ll look to do it with two home games to end the year. First is Tuesday against a very disappointing, but recently feisty, Wake Forest team and then on Saturday UVA will look to avenge one of their three ACC losses with a home tilt vs VT. UVA are big favorites in both of these games and should hang on to the #2 spot in the ACC.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 3rd vs Wake Forest 7pm ACCN, March 7th vs VT 12pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #14 NET, Well that one could have gone better!

Bracket Matrix: 92/92, Average seed: 3.96

 

3. Miami Hurricanes 23-6 (12-4)

Last week: Won 83-73 @ Florida State, Won 76-54 vs Boston College

 

Miami took care of business and now have themselves solidly in the field after two double digit victories against inferior squads, but now they have a chance to really move up the NCAA Tournament pecking order with a week featuring two Quad 1 opportunities. First up is a road showdown vs an SMU team that is coming off of a very tough week. The matchup between Tre Donaldson and Malik Reneau for Miami and Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre of SMU is going to be a thrilling one. Two high powered offenses going at it should be appointment viewing for you on Wednesday. Then in the regular season finale Miami will take on Louisville at home. Another showdown of high flying offenses and big-time guard play and it’s really a week where if you are a fan of ACC basketball you need to be watching Miami because I think both of these games will be great. Miami controls their own destiny for the double bye in the ACC Tournament but could fall to as low as 6th in the conference if this week goes poorly. Miami owns the tiebreaker over UNC and N.C. State but does not have it against Clemson or UVA.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 4th @ SMU 7pm ACCN, March 7th vs Louisville 2pm ESPN

Tournament outlook: #31 NET, Big chance to jump up the seed lines this week

Bracket Matrix: 92/92, Average seed: 8.05

 

4. North Carolina Tar Heels 23-6 (11-5)

Last week: Won 77-74 vs Louisville, Won 89-82 vs Virginia Tech

 

North Carolina held on for two victories at home to push themselves to 4-1 in Caleb Wilson’s absence so far. Against Louisville the Tar Heels survived getting outrebounded by 9 and surrendering 14 made 3s to the Cards thanks in part to a 21-2 run that spanned the end of the first half through the first six minutes of the second. Seth Trimble poured in 30 points while Henri Veesaar and Luka Bogavec both scored 12. It was a big win especially without the services of Wilson but Virginia Tech potentially gave the Heels even more trouble. VT led for a good bit of the first half and despite a 12-2 UNC run in the second, it was close throughout. Henri Veesaar’s 26 points and Trimble’s 20 were what propelled UNC to victory. Now UNC occupies the final double bye spot for the ACCT but have a pretty much deciding game vs Clemson on Tuesday. The Tigers have a defense that could make a Wilson-less UNC team miserable but this game is also being played in a building Clemson has won at just twice ever. Then in the final game of the regular season UNC will travel to Duke to try and complete the season sweep of their hated rivals, and potentially with the return of Caleb Wilson. Wilson has been progressing with his recovery and has targeted the Duke game for his return from the start but we shall see. In the first matchup between these two it was UNC’s second half defense that really paved the way for their victory but that performance is far from replicable if there’s no Wilson to help with it.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 3rd vs Clemson 7pm ESPN, March 7th @ Duke 6:30pm ESPN

Tournament outlook: #26 NET, When will Caleb Wilson make his return

Bracket Matrix: 92/92, Average seed: 5.21

 

5. Clemson Tigers 21-8 (11-5)

Last week: Won 80-75 vs Louisville

 

Clemson finally won a game! The Tigers snapped their four game losing streak in impressive fashion, leading by as many as 15 with a minute to go and holding Louisville’s explosive offense to 10-36 from 3, including an 0-6 day from downtown for Mikel Brown Jr., in a vintage Brownell team performance. Jestin Porter got back to his ways with 3 steals to go along with a team leading 16 points and the Tigers just had a very efficient day from 2 shooting nearly 60%. It was a much needed win that coupled with NCSU’s loss put Clemson right back into the hunt for the double bye, and they’ll have the perfect opportunity to grab that bye as they play 4th place UNC on Tuesday. Without Wilson this is a UNC offense that plays really well into Clemson’s hands and if they can limit Seth Trimble who isn’t exactly the iso guard scoring archetype that usually gives Clemson issues I could really see Clemson winning this one. If they do they’ll have to take care of business vs Georgia Tech at home to round things out on Senior Day. The win against Louisville did a lot to stop Clemson’s bleeding in a NCAA Tournament sense and as long as they don’t lose to Georgia Tech they should be back on that 7 or 8 line easily.

 

Upcoming schedule:March 3rd @ UNC 7pm ESPN, March 7th vs GT 12pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #34 NET, Hey! They remembered

Bracket Matrix: 92/92, Average seed: 8.74

 

6. North Carolina State Wolfpack 19-10 (10-6)

Last week: Lost 90-61 @ UVA, Lost 96-90 (OT) @ Notre Dame

 

Few teams will be happier to see February go than the Wolfpack of N.C. State. Losers of 4 of their last 5 and coming off a brutal week where their chances at an ACC Tournament double bye all but vanished. In the game in Charlottesville the Pack were barely in it in a game where they surrendered several huge runs and just could never get it going shooting sub 30% from the field as a TEAM. The Wolfpack seemingly had things in the bag as they started out 8-13 from 3 and were blistering against Notre Dame’s poor defense. Then the Wolfpack shot 2-21 from 3 in the rest of the game. Despite that shooting catastrophe NCSU still led 79-70 after a nice run to seemingly put things away at the U4 timeout. Then Notre Dame went on a 14-2 run over the final minutes of regulation into overtime to just completely flip the game on its head. State got crushed on the offensive glass, while the Irish shot 12-25 from 2, and NCSU suffered one of the bigger upsets of the ACC season. March springs hope eternal however with a home date on Monday vs Duke before a season finale against Stanford where State will look to put the horrors of February behind them. Few teams in the world are playing better than Duke is right now and it is going to be a tall task for State to even avoid getting blown out but with the offensive capabilities NCSU has shown I think there’s a chance this could be close. They’ll just have to fix their issue of fading down the stretch. Against Stanford Ebuka Okorie is going to do his best but that type of guard does not play well vs a Will Wade defense.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 2nd vs Duke 7pm ESPN, March 7th vs Stanford 2:15pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #29 NET, Another missed three just whizzed past my window, take cover!

Bracket Matrix: 92/92, Average seed: 7.90

 

7. Louisville Cardinals 20-9 (9-7)

Last week: Lost 77-74 @ UNC, Lost 80-75 @ Clemson

 

Louisville’s road trip to the Carolinas was a disaster in every sense but the food department. Pat Kelsey’s big game problem persists in two losses where the Cards just straight up vanished for large periods of time, surrendering a 21-2 run to UNC while Clemson took control of their game in a much slower strangling effort. Mikel Brown Jr. was all over the place vs UNC scoring 24 points on 25 shots and Ryan Conwell having 23 on 19 shots before the two combined to score just 20 on 8-22 shooting against Clemson. They’ve now lost 3 of 4 but return home on Tuesday to take on Syracuse before ending the year on the road in a big game against Miami. Syracuse should be a big win for Louisville and the game in Miami, while it isn’t a titanic matchup, is a chance for UL to nab a high quality road win right before the tournament. I think we could see a big week from Louisville’s big three of Brown, Headley, and Conwell this week. Louisville’s potential for moving up is limited by Clemson and UNC owning the tiebreakers over the Cards.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 3rd vs Syracuse 9pm ACCN, March 7th @ Miami 2pm ESPN2

Tournament outlook: #17 NET, Well I mean that one really did not go as planned huh

Bracket Matrix: 92/92, Average seed: 6.04

 

8. California Golden Bears 20-9 (8-8)

Last week: Won 73-69 vs SMU, Lost 72-56 vs Pitt

 

Cal nabbed both their biggest win and their most disastrous loss of the season in the span of one week both at home. Against SMU, Cal survived a 14-2 second half run as Justin Pippen took over scoring a majority of his 24 points in the final minutes and his 3 steals were part of a defensive effort that helped force 14 turnovers by the Mustangs to help overcome a 9-32 shooting day from deep for the Golden Bears. It was a massive win for Cal and put them firmly in the tournament picture, that was until they got blown out at home by Pitt. A complete no-show where Cal turned it over on nearly 24% of their possessions and when they weren’t turning it over they were bricking 3s shooting 5-22. Cal never led at home against PITT. Now the Golden Bears end their season with a two game road trip against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest where they’ll absolutely have to go 2-0 and probably in impressive fashion to have a chance of removing the taste from this loss out of the mouths of the committee.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 4th @ GT 7pm ESPNU, March 7th @ Wake Forest 4pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #64 NET, You blew it billy madison dot mp4

Bracket Matrix: 41/92, Average seed: 10.98

 

9. SMU Mustangs 19-10 (8-8)

Last week: Lost 73-69 @ Cal, Lost 95-75 @ Stanford

 

SMU dropped both of their west coast road games and all of the sudden finds themselves trending towards the bubble after a 4-4 February. The loss against Cal was at least a little defensible with a tough shooting day from Jaron Pierre and the team as a whole with a lot of turnovers but then in Palo Alto the Mustangs just completely lost control after a first half Stanford run. Ebuka Okorie was a big part of it going for 22 but Senior Benny Gealer dropped 30 on SMU scoring above 20 points for just the third time in his career. The schedule now doesn’t get any easier for SMU with a home game on Wednesday vs Miami that has taken on all new meaning before a season finale road date with a feisty FSU squad. Both of these games have the makings of shootouts and SMU is going to be desperate at home for a big win that could save their spot in the tournament.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 4th vs Miami 7pm ACCN, March 7th @ FSU 2pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #35 NET, I mean seriously what was that dude

Bracket Matrix: 92/92, Average seed: 9.55

 

10. Florida State Seminoles 15-14 (8-8)

Last week: Lost 83-73 vs Miami, Won 80-71 @ Georgia Tech

 

FSU continued their late season turnaround finishing February 5-2 with the two losses being to surefire NCAAT squads UVA and Miami. Tre Donaldson and Malik Reneau for Miami combined for 44 points while the Seminoles struggled from deep shooting 8-28 which was the real difference. The shooting struggles continued in Atlanta with a 7-26 day from 3 but they knocked down 19 free throws and shot very well from 2 for the wire to wire road victory. FSU ends the season with a road trip to Pitt before their final home game against SMU. A 2-0 week is entirely possible but Pitt has been playing better as of late and SMU will be desperate to avoid a big loss. FSU is going to need Lajae Jones to find his shot again from deep but if they can go 2-0 they could have their first winning season in ACC play since 2021.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 4th @ Pitt 9pm ACCN, March 7th vs SMU 2pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #77 NET, Honestly could end the season above .500 wow

Bracket Matrix: 0/92

 

11. Virginia Tech Hokies 18-11 (7-9)

Last week: Lost 89-82 @ UNC

 

Virginia Tech’s loss to UNC was far from a horrible showing but it was another blown opportunity in a laundry list of them for the Hokies this season in their efforts to get back to the NCAA tournament. One big run from UNC in the last moments of the first half and early goings of the second was all the Tar Heels needed to put themselves in front and with a lead they would not relinquish. The Hokies just got absolutely crushed on the boards and couldn’t knock down enough 3s to overshadow that. The good news for VT is that the entire bubble is committed to losing so by nature of somebody having to make the field they’re still alive and have a shot at a big win this week. They’ll need to avoid the home meltdown against Boston College before going for the season sweep of UVA on the road. It’ll have to be an all hands on deck performance against the Cavaliers on the road but it is far from an unwinnable game as UVA has been incredibly bipolar recently.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 3rd vs BC 9pm ESPNU, March 7th @ UVA 12pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #55 NET, Ok but for real this one is your LAST CHANCE

Bracket Matrix: 12/92, Average seed: 11.00

 

12. Stanford Cardinal 18-11 (7-9)

Last week: Won 75-67 vs Pitt, Won 95-75 vs SMU

 

Stanford! WIth a 2-0 week! What are the odds huh? Well playing Pitt helps but the Cardinal got a truly impressive win vs SMU which, while it is a little too late for NCAA Tournament hopes, it is a nice sign of progress and that the team hasn’t quit on Kyle Smith after such a tough stretch. Ebuka Okorie had 34 points vs Pitt with 28 of them coming in the second half and he had another 22 vs SMU but it was the Senior Benny Gealer who scored 30 points for the first time in his college career to help spur the upset. Now Stanford will look to avenge an earlier loss with a road game against Notre Dame who in their last meeting held Okorie to 3-14 from the field in a 47-40 loss. Then Stanford will stay on the road and head to Raleigh for what is sure to be the longest road trip for a conference game in the continental US this season. Honestly with how both of these teams have played this is a potential 2-0 week for Stanford and while it would likely be too little too late for a tournament bid it could still result in a 20-win season for the first time since 2020.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 4th @ ND 9pm ESPNU, March 7th @ NCSU 2:15pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #65 NET, Well maybe?

Bracket Matrix: 0/92

 

13. Syracuse Orange 15-14 (6-10)

Last week: Lost 88-83 @ Wake Forest

 

Syracuse has completely fallen apart down the stretch of this season with a loss to Wake Forest being their third in a row and 5th in their last 7 games. Adrian Autry has to be on his way out after another disaster season in Syracuse is going to result in the Orange going now over 5 years since they last went to the NCAA Tournament. They’ll end their season with a pair of old Big East foes in games that were supposed to mean a lot more when these teams joined the ACC. Starting with a Tuesday road game against Louisville who will be playing angry which is a terrible combination for a seemingly checked out Syracuse team before the Orange end their season at home against Pitt. A winning season is just about the only thing left to play for here.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 3rd @ Louisville 9pm ACCN, March 7th vs Pitt 4:30pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #79 NET, What happened to this program man

Bracket Matrix: 0/92

 

14. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 15-14 (6-10)

Last week: Lost 68-67 @ Boston College, Won 88-83 vs Syracuse

 

Wake Forest’s athletic director came out and said they were not going to fire Steve Forbes and Steve Forbes said “we’ll see about that” and proceeded to lose to Boston College on a buzzer beater. Juke Harris had 38 of Wake’s 67 points in the game and frankly if you are a Wake Forest fan you are entitled to compensation at this point. They beat Syracuse at home where it was Myles Colvin who had 32 in the shootout victory. Forbes still figures to be the coach next year but if that year is anything like this it will likely be the end. Wake will end the season with a road trip to UVA before a home game against Cal where I honestly could totally see them playing spoiler to the Golden Bears NCAAT hopes.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 3rd @ UVA 7pm ACCN, March 7th vs Cal 4pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #68 NET, Wake Forest contains multitudes

Bracket Matrix: 0/92

 

15. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 13-16 (4-12)

Last week: Lost 100-56 vs Duke, Won 96-90 (OT) vs N.C. State

 

Notre Dame experienced the lowest low of the Shrewsberry era and potentially the highest high in the same week! Against Duke in a self proclaimed “season from hell” Notre Dame suffered their worst home loss in program history and in a season mired by injuries not even coaches are safe as right before halftime Micah Shrewsberry tore his achilles in a collision with a player. All hope seemed lost, especially with a home game against a high quality N.C. State team on the horizon. Things didn’t look much better during the actual game as State started 8-13 from 3 and the only thing keeping ND in the game was a similarly blistering shooting performance from Cole Certa. But then in the second half Jalen Haralson, who had missed the past few weeks with an ankle injury, made his triumphant return to the floor scoring 25 points off the bench with 14 of those points coming in the final 10 minutes of regulation as ND engineered a comeback that forced overtime. In OT Cole Certa scored 12 of his 32 total points as he completely took over the game and delivered ND their best win in several years. The Irish will end the season with a chance at the season sweep vs Stanford at home on Wednesday before a road game against Boston College with huge ACC Tournament implications.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 4th vs Stanford 9pm ESPNU, March 7th @ BC 12pm ESPNU

Tournament outlook: #91 NET, Stack some wins, get to Charlotte

Bracket Matrix: 0/92

 

16. Pittsburgh Panthers 11-18 (4-12)

Last week: Lost 75-67 @ Stanford, Won 72-56 @ Cal

 

Pitt gave Stanford all they could handle and then dropped the banhammer on Cal as the Panthers late season spark continued as they push for the last spot in the ACC Tournament. Pitt had 4 scorers in double figures and held Cal to 5-22 from 3 which along with a high turnover rate doomed the Golden Bears. It’s one of the highest honors a team can achieve after their own season is over which is ruining the NCAAT hopes of another. Pitt controls their own destiny for the final ACC Tournament spot but they’ll need to go 2-0 against Florida State at home and Syracuse on the road to do it. Pitt has survived against some volume 3 point shooting teams but perhaps nobody shoots them with more volume than the Seminoles but the game @ Syracuse has all the makings of a stinker.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 4th vs FSU 9pm ACCN, March 7th @ Syracuse 4:30pm The CW

Tournament outlook: #112 NET, Hope Sidney Crosby is ok and make the ACCT

Bracket Matrix: 0/92

 

17. Boston College Eagles 10-19 (3-13)

Last week: Won 68-67 vs Wake Forest, Lost 76-54 @ Miami

 

I mean you won a game! Hey! Fred Payne had 23 as BC stunned Wake Forest in the final seconds in Chestnut Hill for BC’s first win since January. They then followed that up with a blowout loss at Miami but still I mean hey you actually won a game! BC will end their season still with an outside chance at the ACC Tournament as they go on the road to bubble team Virginia Tech before hosting Notre Dame to end the regular season.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 3rd @ VT 9pm ESPNU, March 7th vs ND 12pm ESPNU

Tournament outlook: #163 NET, Even the hockey team can’t win now man

Bracket Matrix: 0/92

 

18. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 11-18 (2-14)

Last week: Lost 80-71 vs Florida State

 

Georgia Tech is the first team eliminated from ACC Tournament contention as with the loss to Florida State they cannot get higher than 16th. GT will try to ruin Cal’s season and spoil Clemson’s Senior Day festivities in the search for their first win since January 17th.

 

Upcoming schedule: March 4th vs Cal 7pm ESPNU, March 7th @ Clemson 12pm ACCN

Tournament outlook: #170 NET, I mean the baseball team is *really* good

Bracket Matrix: 0/92