ACC NCAA Tournament Preview

The months-long grind of the regular season has subsided and in the wake of the week long war of conference tournaments we have a bracket for the 2026 NCAA Tournament field and the ACC had its resurgent year rewarded with 8 teams in the field, the most for the league since 2018. Duke ran the table in Charlotte to bring home another piece of hardware and complete the regular season and tournament sweep to earn the #1 overall seed in the dance. With the First Four matchups starting tonight we’re gonna go ahead and dive right in! It’s March!

First Four

#11 North Carolina State vs #11 Texas

Tuesday 9:15pm TruTV

Winner plays #6 BYU

A regular season rematch is the first game featuring an ACC team this tournament and it is two teams that had very similar 2025-26 campaigns. Both Texas and NCSU entered the year with new Head Coaches with Texas sporting former Arizona and Xavier coach Sean Miller while State won the Will Wade sweepstakes. Both teams had issues against a tough non-conference schedule but still looked solid, then in conference play each of them had a nice run to get firmly into the NCAAT field before ending the year poorly. Texas lost 5 of their last 6 while NCSU lost 2 of their final 9 games which landed them both in Dayton. In their first meeting Texas won 102-97 in Maui where both teams combined to make 25 3-pointers in what was a real tone setter because both teams would go on to have great offensive seasons while also sporting pretty mediocre to bad defenses. Both Texas and State let opponents shoot over 35% from 3 and are in the red of just about every statistic but the small areas where both teams shine on defense is probably where this will be decided. NCSU forces a lot of turnovers and is quite good at blocking shots while Texas limits opponents inside the arc. This has the makings of a first four classic and should be a really fun watch tonight. In terms of draw for the Wolfpack with a win they’d face an injured and similarly reeling BYU team and then would face the winner of Gonzaga vs Kennesaw State. It’s not a horrific draw for the Pack considering their circumstances. But before that they’re gonna have to get past Texas which should be a barn burner.

#11 SMU vs #11 Miami (OH)

Wednesday 9:15pm TruTV

Winner plays #6 Tennessee

SMU gets the honor of drawing what was college basketball’s last unbeaten team as the Mustangs face off with Miami Ohio in Dayton. SMU, much like NCSU, ended the season poorly and found themselves relegated to the First Four after an uninspiring ACCT run. Miami Ohio was 31-0 but got upset in the first round of the MAC Tournament by UMASS and thus were one of the last teams included in the field. Metrically SMU is a heavy favorite and the talent advantage skews the ‘Stangs way as well with Miami Ohio being just 93rd in KenPom on the season which is the lowest by an at-large selection ever. The Redhawks are not completely helpless however, as they boast one of the best shooting rosters in America, shooting over 60% from 2 and nearly 40% from 3 on the season. The fact is that Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre are just going to be in a completely different sphere of reality than any other combination of players Miami has played this year which just makes it really hard to see anything other than a Mustang win. With a win SMU would face Tennessee in the first round in what would actually be a pretty solid matchup for them as Rick Barnes teams are noted for their March struggles and SMU is plenty talented enough to score on Tennessee’s defense all the while the Vols struggle to shoot themselves. In the 2nd round they’d face the winner of Virginia and Wright State so the Mustangs have the possibility of an interleague matchup in the round of 32, albeit one that would not favor them.

Round of 64

#6 Louisville vs #11 USF

Thursday 1:30pm TNT

Our first ACC team in the first round is Louisville facing off against former conference mate USF in one of the most popular upset picks of the first round. The Bulls are 25-8 and champions of the American and have won 11 games in a row and are 17-2 since starting 8-6 on the year. They’re a defense first team but play at an incredibly high tempo and get a lot of shots up on offense but that is one of the reasons why I personally don’t really get why this is such a popular upset pick with Louisville looking to have Mikel Brown Jr. return for the dance and with him the Cardinals have more than enough firepower to outrun this USF team. Louisville is going to shoot a lot of 3s and figure to have most of them be good looks against this USF defense that is almost entirely about collapsing on drives and forcing turnovers/bad shots in the paint. USF also does not secure the glass well on either end so if Louisville does miss some 3s they’re liable to get those possessions right back. There is the elephant in the room that Pat Kelsey is still without a victory in the NCAA Tournament in his career but I believe he can finally do it this week. With a win Louisville would play the winner of Michigan State vs North Dakota State. Michigan State would be a particularly tough matchup for Louisville with their size and strength down low combined with a high quality defense and an all-time coach that I think it will take a big day from Brown to send Louisville to the second weekend for the first time since 2015.

#1 Duke vs #16 Siena

Thursday 2:50pm CBS

The #1 overall seed in this year’s tournament the Duke Blue Devils get their first taste of NCAA Tournament action against Siena. On the injury front for Duke it seems like Caleb Foster is still a little ways away from returning from his fractured foot, but Patrick Ngongba is progressing nicely and while we likely will not see him against the Saints he will be back sooner rather than later. There’s not much to break down between Duke and Siena if the Blue Devils don’t win by 20+ I think most people would be surprised, the Saints do have a good defense and rode it to a MAAC title but I do not think that will translate. With a win Duke would play the winner of Ohio State and TCU in the second round which would actually be somewhat interesting. TCU has existed as a giant killer this season with some really big wins and even more scares put into the likes of Michigan and Kansas that it wouldn’t be the craziest thing if the Horned Frogs were able to hang with Duke for a bit. Ohio State sports a high powered offense that ended the season hot but struggled to show up in their biggest games this year. Duke would be a heavy favorite against both but I could see a TCU matchup being dicey especially if no Ngongba.

#6 North Carolina vs #11 VCU

Thursday 6:50pm TNT

Another incredibly popular upset pick features UNC who went one-and-done in Charlotte and just has a general malaise of vibes about them right now against a red hot VCU team who has made the tournament for the third time in the last four years under 3 different Head Coaches. The Rams won the A10 tournament at 27-7 and have won 16 of their last 17 games and had strong non-conference wins against USF and Virginia Tech for a pretty strong résumé. They’re a balanced team that skews a little better towards offense and the big key there is the three ball. VCU is 35th in the country in 3PT% and UNC’s issues guarding the perimeter are incredibly well documented. Other than the inherent advantages of being North Carolina one big area the Tar Heels can lean on in this game will be size as the tallest team in the country is going up against a VCU team whose starting center is 6’11 but only have one other contributor above 6’6. Henri Veesaar and Stevenson are going to have to be big again after being a huge part of UNC’s offense down the stretch without Caleb Wilson. I honestly am pretty torn on this game and feel like it could be a classic March down to the wire affair. With a win UNC would face the winner of Illinois vs Penn which is two sides of the UNC bad matchup coin. Illinois is one of the few teams who can match up with UNC size wise while Penn is a Fran McCaffrey 3 point bonanza offense. It would obviously most likely be Illinois which would be a really fun clash of the titans but that’s doing a lot of assuming that the Tar Heels make it past VCU.

#3 Virginia vs #14 Wright State

Friday 1:50pm TBS

Virginia was another first year turnaround success story as Ryan Odom guided the Cavaliers all the way to the ACC Tournament final and were right there with Duke to the very end in a fantastic game. Now the Wahoos turn their attention to trying to get a NCAA Tournament win for the first time since the 2019 National Championship game. It in theory should be an easier one as UVA’s romp through Charlotte earned the Cavs a 3 seed in the dance and a matchup with Wright State the champions of the Horizon League. Wright State is an offense first defense no thank you type of team and that is just a brutal matchup against this UVA team. If Virginia can take care of business they would face the winner of Tennessee vs Miami Ohio/SMU in the second round. In olden times a UVA UT matchup in the dance would have been one of the worst watches in basketball history and while the Rick Barnes effect is still in play for the Vols this isn’t your typical Cavalier squad. UVA would be pretty heavy favorites against any of these three teams but a rematch with SMU would be interesting as the Cavaliers and Mustangs played to a 72-68 UVA win in ACC play. I think UVA should be an easy pick to advance to the next weekend.

#8 Clemson vs #9 Iowa

Friday 6:50pm TNT

Brad Brownell has the Tigers in the NCAA Tournament for the third year in a row as they try to bounce back from their embarrassing exit against McNeese State a year ago. Clemson won multiple ACC Tournament games for just the third time ever a week ago and now their first round matchup is with the Iowa Hawkeyes in a battle of two of the slowest tempo teams in D1. Iowa finished 21-12 but that’s off of an 18-5 start and the Hawkeyes have been struggling down the stretch. They feature the highest usage rate player amongst the high majors with Bennett Stirtz which in theory should play well into Clemson’s hands. The Tigers have been very good under Brad Brownell at taking away players like Stirtz and forcing teams who rely on one scorer, who isn’t an uber talented iso scoring guard, to distribute and make his teammates beat them. The loss of Carter Welling for the season with a torn ACL is a brutal blow but Clemson should still be able to feast inside on an Iowa defense that lets opponents shoot over 55% from 2. It’s an Iowa defense that isn’t super great but the one thing they excel at is forcing turnovers so if Clemson is able to hold onto the ball they should be feeling good about this matchup. With a win Clemson would be facing the winner of Florida vs either Prairie View or Lehigh. The Gators would be an extremely tall order for Clemson as any 1 seed should be but honestly Florida might have been their best draw. The Gators have been playing a lot better recently but still have seen some streaky shooting performances from their guards and rely almost entirely on the interior when that fails which is where Clemson’s defense could really shine. It would undoubtedly be Clemson’s biggest March upset of all-time though and it is much easier said than done.

#7 Miami vs #10 Mizzou

Friday 10:10pm TruTV

Our final first round matchup for the ACC features Mizzou, losers of three straight and honestly are a team that is lucky the committee didn’t put their résumé under more scrutiny. The Tigers finished 58th in NET and 52nd in KenPom, were 5-9 away from home, and had 11 of their 20 wins come vs Quads 3 and 4 (bad teams) this season. For Miami this is a dream matchup as the Tigers struggle defensively and feature really only one individual threat on offense, but it is a big threat. Former Duke Blue Devil Mark Mitchell is Mizzou’s star do-everything big man. Him vs Malik Reanau will be an appointment viewing in the post but everything outside of that is what gives Mizzou such issues against this Miami team. I love the idea of Tre Donaldson against this defense so much I have probably already jinxed them. There is always the possibility of FT shooting dooming the Canes but I like them here a lot. With a win the Hurricanes would face the winner of Purdue vs Queens in the second round. I like Miami’s chances to give Purdue a game but I don’t know if they have the depth to outlast the Boilermakers who are playing some really great basketball right now.

Predictions

Right now I’m just going to go team by team and give my predictions on their first matchup and then what round I think they’ll make it to in the tournament!

NCSU: Win first four, R64

SMU: Win first four, R64

Louisville: Win vs USF, R32

Duke: Win vs Siena, National Championship

North Carolina: Lose vs VCU, R64

UVA: Win vs Wright State, Elite Eight

Clemson: Win vs Iowa, R32

Miami: Win vs Mizzou, R32

Final Four: Duke vs Florida, Arkansas vs Michigan

National Championship: Duke over Michigan

And that’s it for the NCAA Tournament ACC Preview! We want to thank you for joining us this season covering ACC Basketball and hope you stay tuned for more!