Do Braves Fans Owe AA An Apology

It has now been two and a half weeks since the MLB Trade Deadline. We all know the stories and subsequent hot takes and opinions that came from that chaotic weekend.

*Tarik Skubal was traded to the Dodgers three days before the deadline*

“The Dodgers are ruining baseball! They have more money than anyone else and it is just not fair! It was rigged from the get-go. The Tigers brass wanted him to go to the Dodgers the whole time so they can use it as a point to argue for a salary cap and floor this offseason!”

*The Red Sox traded Anthony Eyanson, Kyson Witherspoon, and Enddy Azocar— three of their top 10 prospects, to Baltimore for Adley Rutschman.

*The Cubs traded for Kevin Gausman from the Blue Jays and Clay Holmes from the Mets to bolster their rotation.

*Luis Arraez got shipped to the Phillies from San Francisco

*Casey Mize was flipped from the Tigers to the Padres to give them some pitching help.

There were a ton of splashy moves made. Something that you kind of expect in an era where there are six wild card spots up for grabs. Many teams that would have considered themselves sellers a few years ago as well as teams like the Red Sox and Phillies, who got hot mid-season, faced a choice — to sell or not to sell?

The Phillies and BoSox opted to buy. Boston won 15 games in a row back in July, taking them from cellar dwellers to comfortably in the hunt for the second AL Wild Card spot. The Phillies, who after firing Rob Thomson back in mid April, hired Don Mattingly and completely changed the trajectory of their season, clearly had to buy as they were trailing the Braves by eight games in the NL East standings but were solidly in wild card position.

And then there are the moves the Atlanta Braves made. Or should I say, lack thereof. It was reported frequently that they were all in on the sweepstakes for Tarik Skubal — conveniently in a time where the Braves needed another starter that could give them enough depth for a postseason run. It was also said they were in talks with the Rangers for Jacob DeGrom. There were even rumblings they were looking into Casey Mize.

Out of all those — and much to the chagrin of Braves fans who had been getting their hopes of a big move up for weeks, got none of them. Instead, Alex Anthopoulos got a lefty bat in outfielder Lane Thomas from the Royals along with reliever Bailey Falter (leaving many fans going ‘Who?!”). Third base prospect Nacho Alvarez was shipped off to the Angels for reliever Brent Suter, and in the biggest move, the starter they were able to snag was Tyler Mahle from the Giants.

Fans were livid. They were screaming for Anthopoulos to be fired, practically ready to storm the gates of Truist Park to riot at his office door. I get the sentiment. The Braves have been in a World Series window for years. This decade should feel like the 90s — where they were winning the division every year and were a shoo-in to at least make the NLCS. Instead, since the magical (and frankly improbable) 2021 World Series run, they have dropped the NLDS in four games twice to the Phillies, have gotten swept in a wild card series by the Padres, and completely missed the postseason altogether with so many injuries it was comical.

Fans are sick of it. They know the window is quickly closing and they want to get back to the mountaintop. I feel you. I enjoyed that 2021 run as much as any of the rest of you. But, what fans forget is that even in the golden days of the 90s they long to relive in all their nostalgia, they won one World Series and made it just three times in that span — losing the other two. It is hard to get there. Deadline moves and free agency pickups don’t always guarantee that a team will make it that deep.

It is easy to get frustrated with the GM and ownership in this era where the Dodgers, Padres, and Mets outspend the entire league to try and buy championships.  It is easy to look at LA winning back to back titles and having such a loaded roster now that they are favored to three peat and feel the Braves are being apathetic when everybody in the league needs to do something to close the gap.

It is also easy to scream that the Dodgers are ruining baseball. But the simple fact is that they are not. Let’s look at how the teams that made splashy trades are doing and peek at how the big names from the deadline are faring.

The honest truth based on the last six weeks is that the Dodgers needed Tarik Skubal — but so far they have not gotten the Cy Young candidate he was in Detroit. Since joining the LA roster, he has started three games with an 0-2 record, an ERA nearing 3.20, and just 19 strikeouts over 17 innings pitched. Add that into Los Angeles’ struggles over the last month — a 13-11 record in July and 9-11 so far in August, and it suffices to say that if they are ruining baseball, they are doing an awful job of it.

Casey Mize has also started three games for the Padres since his trade, posting a 1-1 record and an ERA pushing 5.20 with just 10 K’s and six walks in 15 and a third innings. San Diego is not slumping quite as hard as the Dodgers, having gone 10-5 over the last two and half weeks. But, one has to notice the obvious — Mize has not been the reason for it.

Kevin Gausman has not been much help for Chicago, keeping the trend of a high ERA and a 1-1 record alive. He has a 6.19 average with 11 earned runs and an average of a strikeout per inning (he has thrown 16). But, fortunately thanks to a red-hot Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs hold a respectable 12-5 record over the last 17 games.

Obviously the sample size is small, but the overwhelming truth is that the teams that made splashy trades have not seen an immediate return on the investment. Sure, you don’t always get an immediate result. But, that is kind of one of the points I am trying to make.

Let’s say the Braves DID get one of those guys. Would things be any different right now? Don’t get me wrong. Atlanta is just going through the motions and sailing through the doldrums at the plate. They are in a slump and nobody is denying that. You know who else is slumping right now? The Dodgers. You know — where Tarik Skubal landed.

Now, let’s look at how the acquisitions Anthopoulos made are doing.

Tyler Mahle has a 1.45 ERA and has allowed just three earned runs with 19 strikeouts over the same number of starts as Skubal, Mize, and Gausman — albeit with a 1-2 record. Brent Suter has appeared in three games, notching a 2.25 ERA with two earned runs allowed over eight innings — a smaller sample and not an eye popping stat line. But he has contributed. Falter is in triple A and Lane Thomas has been in a platoon role, playing in 11 games with sub-Mendoza line average and only three RBIs. Again, small sample, but of the trade pieces, so far he has not been one the Braves have gotten much out of.

In short, the Braves have gotten what they needed as far as production from their main addition (Mahle). He has just not gotten much run support. One could also sum things up by reiterating that Atlanta is in a funk right now. Fans have gotten a bit panicky with their lead in the NL East having been shaved by three games over the past week. It is not like that has not happened before.

Baseball seasons are full of hot streaks and slumps, and it is hard to consistently be hot. The Braves started April and May at a torrid pace that we all knew was not sustainable, and the Phillies took advantage of June’s struggles to cut the lead down to two games after Atlanta had been up by as many as nine. But, the Braves got back on track in July and built the lead back to eight games.

As of Thursday August 20th, the lead is at five games. In essence, the reality fans are choosing to ignore is that they WILL make the postseason this year. Even if they slip up and lose the division, they WILL be a wild card team, disappointing as that may be. The reality is also that this team should be much healthier by the time October rolls around.

That said, will they make a run? Are they World Series contenders? Probably not. But they were never favored to. Do we want them to win it all? Absolutely. Is it cause to blow it all up and rebuild again if they don’t? Of course not. The farm is too good for that.

At the end of the day, the Dodgers are still the team to beat and no trade will magically change that. A good season is to make it to the NLCS, but even if the Braves don’t, it won’t be Alex Anthopoulos or Liberty Media’s fault.

So yes, fans, maybe it is time to acknowledge that your GM might just know a thing or two about what he is doing. Maybe it is also time to embrace reality, frustrating as it may be.