Braves Enter September On Top of East

As the calendar turns to September the Atlanta Braves are 82-56 leading the NL East by 4 games with an over 99% chance to make the postseason. With it being the final month of the regular season, eyes begin to turn to the state of the Braves starting rotation and who will be getting the ball with pennant hopes on the line in October. We’re going to break down the options at Atlanta’s disposal on the mound as they look to win a postseason series for the first time in five years.

The Ace

The good news for Atlanta is that they have one of the top starters in the world in Chris Sale. Sale is in his third year as a Brave but due to an injury in 2024 has yet to make his postseason debut with the club. That’ll change this October as the 6’6 lefty toes the rubber for game 1 of either the Wild Card series or NLDS, depending on where the Braves finish in the National League standings. 

Sale has been phenomenal for the Braves all three seasons but this year might be his finest work yet as he sports a 2.06 ERA in 144 innings with 177 strikeouts to just 28 walks and over 5 WAR. Just recently he spun a complete-game shutout of the Dodgers with 11Ks, his first CGSO since 2019. Part of what gives the Braves the 5th-best odds of winning the World Series as of publication is the fact that they can feel comfortable in game 1 vs really any opponent because of who they’re able to put on the mound in Sale.

The Other Guys

Three pitchers other than Sale have made the lion’s share of starts for the 2026 Braves squad. Martin Perez, Bryce Elder, and Grant Holmes, who for the purposes of this comparison are Michael Keaton, Mark Wahlberg, and Will Ferrell’s characters respectively in the hit 2010 comedy. These three are all perfectly fine regular season pitchers and they’re having quality seasons in 2025 but, questions arise about their ability to hang vs the lineups and pressure of October. 

Elder, much like Wahlberg’s character Terry Holtz, is the most maligned of the group. However, dating back to August of 2025 he has the 21st best ERA amongst starting pitchers in MLB. Bryce does not have overwhelming stuff but his propensity for inducing soft contact on the ground has allowed him to work quickly and deep into games. The problem with Elder is that when he isn’t on things go bad in a real hurry, see: his lone start in the 2023 NLDS vs Philadelphia. Regardless of how you feel about him though, he has had some very strong outings vs top contenders this season and has positioned himself as a real option for a postseason spot with a 4.11 ERA in a team-leading 149 innings.

Martin Perez is the elder statesman of the group, sort of like Michael Keaton’s role as NYPD Captain Mauch. But, the 35-year-old is posting his second best season of his career, with a 3.08 ERA in 128.2 innings. Martín has been the most consistently good out of these three but there is a flaw in his process that could prove fatal in October. Perez doesn’t miss bats much at all running a 17th percentile strikeout rate and he has a 21st percentile whiff rate. Being able to get strikeouts is pivotal to going deep into starts against the kind of lineups you’ll face in the postseason which is what gives many pause about Perez’s prospects.

Then you have Grant Holmes, who for the purposes of this exercise is Will Ferrell’s character but more resembles Kenny Powers than anything else. The free flowing mustachio’d man has pitched to a 3.71 ERA in 128.2 innings with 103 strikeouts. Holmes is electric early in games but the pressing concern with Holmes is how quickly the wheels can come off. Against teams the second and third times through the order Holmes’ numbers are abysmal, teams post a .915 OPS against Holmes the second time through the order with 15 HRs against. These are the main competitors for the other postseason rotation spots besides Sale.

The Wild Cards

Two pitchers that have joined the big league club recently have also made cases to start a game in October. AJ Smith-Shawver who is back from tommy john surgery and Tyler Mahle who was acquired at the trade deadline from the San Francisco Giants. I think that the key to a deep playoff run could lie in one of these two guys. 

Mahle has had the best stats of any starting pitcher acquired at the deadline, putting up an impressive 1.48 ERA, with 32 strikeouts to just 5 walks in 30.1 innings, in five starts in Atlanta. Mahle has exhibited some great control and efficiency going at least 6 innings in four of his five starts since the trade. If he continues to produce like he has down the stretch he has made an incredible argument for getting a start in one of these postseason games.

Then you have the young Smith-Shawver. AJ was great in 2025 putting up a 3.86 ERA in 44.1 innings before tearing his UCL in late May, sidelining him for the rest of that season and many thought we wouldn’t see him again in 2026. But the 23-year-old flamethrower is right back in the major leagues after rehab and a stint in AAA. So far in 3 starts he has posted a 5.93 ERA in 13.2 innings but those numbers are not at all what makes him an interesting postseason option.

Shawver is intriguing due to the quality of his stuff, his fastball sits around 96-97mph and has touched 99 this year and he grades out really well with his other stuff. The key for Shawver is getting the reps in these final starts where his command can come into form, especially with his splitter which could be an elite strikeout pitch for him. 

The M.A.S.H. Unit

The Braves also have a litany of pitchers currently injured and we recently got some news on the four starters. Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach are done for the rest of the year with their respective issues, while Spencer Strider’s status is in limbo with a likely chance that we won’t see him again in 2026 as well. That leaves Reynaldo López as the only real option to come back from injury and make some kind of impact now. Reynaldo was having a perfectly fine regular season pitching to a 3.64 ERA in 71.2 innings, as he bounced between being a starter and a bullpen arm. López is currently in a rehab stint in Gwinnett where recently his pitch count was upped to 70 so he should be on the way back soon.

Final Thoughts

The Atlanta Braves have a lot of arms vying for just a few starts in a month when the National League postseason begins. Chris Sale will get the ball for game 1, but beyond him it is a true mystery as to who will start the next game, hopefully the many more to follow. I think personally having this many options to throw at an opponent is a good problem to have for Atlanta because it allows them to be varied in how they want to approach certain opponents. 

I think with the strength of the Braves bullpen as well all you need to do is get a game into the 6th inning, you can feel good about your chances. If I had to make a guess right now on what the pitching situation looks like for a Wild Card or NLDS series it would be Sale, Mahle, Perez, and Elder. In October the hot hand (or arm) means everything and giving Mahle game 2 at least in my mind gives the Braves the best shot at going up 2-0. 

Mahle has been so good, I think Braves pitching coach Jeremy Hefner has really unlocked him. I think that Perez and Elder have been good enough for so long this year that they deserve a shot but both will likely have quick hooks especially Elder. Grant Holmes and Reynaldo López in the bullpen as efficient piggyback guys attached to Perez or Elder especially could be the answer there and I really like Holmes as a bullpen option in general. AJ Smith-Shawver playing a role similar to Max Fried in 2019 as a late game bullpen option with his stuff. But, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens when those postseason lights come on next month.